In the second quarter of 2021, agro-confidence decreased by 1.5 points. This decline was mainly due to the decline in medieval farmers and gardeners. Feelings about the current state of the business have improved somewhat. Agro-confidence is calculated based on both indexes. Confidence in most sectors has declined. Only trust among farmers has been restored, mainly in pig production.
Confidence in other sectors is greatly diminished. In recent years, farmers and horticulturists have been particularly concerned about sales prices and high costs. This is a testament to the confidence of LTO Nederland, Flynth’s Consultants, Accountants, Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (LNV) and Agro-Economics Research.
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Figure 1.1 Agro-confidence index Agriculture and horticulture and all sectors, 2013-2021-2 (Source: Wagnin Economics Research)
Confidence remains low on average over the long term
Confidence among farmers and horticulturists has grown by nearly 13 points over the long term. The last time this trust was raised was in the first quarter of 2019. The Covide-19 epidemic will have a devastating effect on 2020. There has been recovery since then, but this was abruptly halted in the second quarter. Sector 2021. Sector Farming, dairy farming, pig farming and poultry farming are currently declining below average. Only the fruit and vegetable sectors (under a glass garden) or (open-field garden) have a long average. Despite negative corrections in these areas, self-confidence remains. The index fluctuates sharply in pig production, partly due to significant fluctuations in sales prices and costs.
Better review over the last 12 months, but still not positive for all sectors
The confidence index improved by 8 points compared to the first quarter. Dairy farmers, in particular, have become more satisfied with their business over the past 12 months. The main reason for better pricing was this more positive assessment. Horticulture experts also looked better than in the previous quarter. There was a better assessment of the selling price and the product. However, the increased costs have further increased the brakes on this indicator. The increase is limited to farmers and poultry farmers, and the indicator has fallen due to rising costs, especially for pigs. Despite these recent changes, only fruits and vegetables and open field gardens have a positive confidence index. Although there were 20 positive indicators in dairy farming, the indicator remained below zero for this sector.
The current state of the business has not changed
The Agro-Confidence Index, which reflects the sentiments of entrepreneurs about the current state of their work, has risen by half. This can be considered a stabilizing effect. The sentiment in the two horticultural fields is reaffirmed here. Despite the fall of fruits and vegetables under the glass and the stability of the field garden, the mood in these sectors remained good with a 30-point mark. In other areas, the sensory index is average for general farming and fruit and vegetable production. Here, too, trends vary. Tensions between pig and poultry farmers have plummeted, and farmers are more satisfied than in the past quarter. Among the dairy farmers, the mood was somewhat diminished.
Pig and dairy farmers have little to no future prospects
When farmers and gardeners are asked to keep an eye on their business for the next 12 months, the upward trend in the last four quarters will stop in the second quarter of 2021. The index fell more than 3 points. So most people who are negative have a long way to go. The index stops at -5 points. The confidence index (looking forward) fell mainly among pig farmers. These farmers expect low and low production prices. Dairy farmers and glass producers are facing low sales prices. The costs incurred during the COVID-19 outbreak also play a role and perhaps mistrust. Large parts of the world are still damaged by key locks.
The medium-term futures for traders have been underestimated
When asked to evaluate a medium-term (2 to 3 year) business review, farmers and horticulturists are a little enthusiastic about the second quarter of 2021. The index fell more than 3 points. For a short time, pig farmers believed that they had to deal with the most difficult conditions in the medium term. The index fell by 26 points, which means that the index fell below zero points.
Many entrepreneurs are negative. In all other respects, the indicator fell into this category. The smallest drop in the index (-1) was in the poultry sector. Poultry farmers are optimistic about the 9-point average. Other sector indexes are close to zero point. The dairy farmers’ index decreased by about 9 points in the second quarter. This means that optimism and optimism are balanced here.